Overall sustainable credit risk for EU-27 corporates, albeit within an increasingly uncertain and fragile global environment.
• 1-year public default rates1 are expected to rise to 0.48% in 2026 and 0.58% in 2027 from c. 0.4% in 2024-25 under a baseline scenario. In an adverse scenario, they can rise to 0.71% in 2027, remaining strongly tied to the evolution of macroeconomic, geopolitical and credit conditions.
• Construction & Real Estate sector is the most vulnerable, while Manufacturing and Commerce face increasing pressure.

Bologna, 22 June 2026 – Limited liabilities non-financial corporates in the European Union (“EU-27”) have weathered
a prolonged period of economic and geopolitical shocks over the last few years. Despite the challenging
environment, characterized by the aftermath of the COVID‑19 pandemic, inflation shocks, tight monetary policies,
supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions, European corporates highlighted a remarkable resilience, as
confirmed by a broadly stable and sustainable credit risk profile between 2022 and 2024. That resilience, however,
is now being tested. Corporate fundamentals remain broadly sound; however, EU-27 corporations are facing
increasing pressure from tightening macroeconomic conditions and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. While
negotiations between US and Iran to reach an agreement are ongoing, CRIF foresees an increase in the credit risk in the 2026-2027 period,
This is what emerges from the first edition of CRIF European Credit Outlook. By integrating default rates, proprietary
scoring, financial indicators, sector trends, banking dynamics and forward-looking scenarios, the CRIF European
Credit Outlook provides a comprehensive assessment of the credit risk profile of c. 48,000 limited liabilities nonfinancial corporates across
the EU-27 with more than EUR 50m of revenues, positioning itself as a unique benchmark for credit risk assessment across European non-financial corporates.